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Financial Analysis, Modelling & Forecasting

Financial Analysis, Modelling & Forecasting

Financial Analysis, Modelling & Forecasting training course will focus on the financial analysis and modeling skills that the modern finance professionals need to manage the risks and uncertainties in today’s challenging world, providing high-quality business support to the organization’s key decision-makers.

This course is a complete introduction to practical quantitative risk management, with a focus on market risk.  Derived from years spent training practitioners in risk management techniques, it brings together the three key disciplines of finance, statistics, and modeling (programming), to provide a thorough grounding in risk management techniques.

It then goes on to present volatility forecasting with both univariate and multivariate methods, discussing the various techniques used by industry, with a particular focus on the GARCH family of models. The evaluation of the quality of forecasts is discussed in detail.

Next, the main concepts in risk and models to forecast risk are discussed, especially volatility, value-at-risk and expected shortfall. The focus is both on risk in primary assets such as stocks and foreign exchange, but also calculations of risk in bonds and options, with analytical methods such as delta-normal VaR and duration-normal VaR and Monte Carlo simulation.

Then we are move on to the evaluation of risk models with methods like backtesting, followed by a discussion on stress testing.

The course concludes by focussing on the forecasting of risk in huge and uncommon events with extreme value theory and considering the underlying assumptions behind almost every risk model in practical use – that risk is exogenous –   and what happens when those assumptions are violated.

You might be interested in other Financial Courses as a next step.

You will learn how to

Plan the design and functionality of financial models in Excel

Use powerful functions built into Excel for statistical and economic analysis

Apply financial analysis techniques to improve investment decision-making

Design and develop financial models for forecasting sales, costs, and profit

Implement up to date techniques for managing risk and uncertainty

Use economic models to assist in business decision-making

IMPORTANT COURSE INFORMATION

Participants who fully attend this course and complete the test on the last day will receive a Strategic Axis Professional Certificate (SAPC). SAPC certificates are regionally recognized and can be quite valuable when applying for more senior roles within the organization or outside.

COURSE OUTLINE

Modules

Module 1: Tools to Meet the Challenges of the 21st Century 

 

  • The Nature and Challenge of Competitive Business
  • Managing Risk and Uncertainty
  • Business Planning and Performance Management
  • Measuring the Key Drivers of Business Success
  • Financial Models – What they are and how to use them most effectively
  • Best Practice in Building Financial Models
  • How to Get the Best Results using Excel

Module 2: Building Models for Financial Statement and Ratio Analysis 

 

  • The Financial Analysis Tool kit
  • Building a company Financial Database in Excel
  • Excel Charting Basics
  • Analysing the Cost-Volume-Profit relationship
  • Understanding the drivers of shareholder value
  • Modelling and Interpreting Financial Rations
  • Using the model to improve Business Performance

Module 3: Building Forecasting Models 

 

  • Understanding the drivers of Profit and Cash Flow
  • Designing and Building a Cash Flow Forecast Model
  • Using Excel’s built-in Data Analysis Tools
  • Analysing trends in past data – moving averages and regression tools
  • Designing and building a Sales Forecast Model
  • Designing and building a Cost Forecast Model
  • Avoiding common problems in Forecasting

Module 4: Building Models for Capital Investment Decisions 

 

  • Principles of Capital Investment decision-making
  • Building a model to Calculate Company Cost of Capital
  • The Time Value of Money and Principles of Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
  • Understanding and using Excel’s built-in DCF functions
  • Designing and building a Capital Investment Appraisal model
  • Principles of Business Valuation
  • Designing and building a Business Valuation Model

Module 5: Building Models for Managing Risk and Uncertainty 

 

  • The impact of risk on Financial Performance
  • Identifying the key drivers of Financial Performance and Strength
  • “What if” forecasts and how they work
  • Designing and building a Financial Statement Forecasting model
  • How to use Excel Goal Seek tool
  • Using Excel’s Scenario Manager tool
  • Building Rolling Forecast models in Excel

 

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